Investment Institute
Actualización mensual de mercados

July Global Macro Monthly - Ahead after the first half…

  • 26 Julio 2023 (7 min read)

Key points

  • Economic growth proved more resilient than expected, particularly in North America. While also true in Europe, recent Eurozone activity has surprised to the downside.
  • Inflation has continued to fall across developed and emerging economies, driven by energy, food and in some cases stronger domestic currencies. Core disinflation has been slower to emerge, reflecting tight labour markets in some cases, but weak productivity growth in others.
  • Resistant core inflation has kept developed central banks on the front foot, the Fed, ECB and BoE all expected to hike further. Elsewhere peaks are emerging. Some first-mover EMs are considering easier policy this year.
  • Markets have made significant recovery from 2022 losses. The second half outlook will depend on whether growth and inflation continue their benign courses. We suggest a more challenging close to the year.

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    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.